US Ben Guerdane 50%Draw 27%ES Metlaoui 23%Expected goals 1.36 – 0.71
67%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.35Odds
Picks by market
ResultUS Ben Guerdane to win ✗50% · @2.05
Double chanceUS Ben Guerdane or draw ✓77% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.85
US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 5 April the Ligue 1 brings US Ben Guerdane against ES Metlaoui at 7 March Stadium. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, US Ben Guerdane are 1st, leading the league, on 17 points after 7 matches; ES Metlaoui are 12th (lower half) with 6.
Current form
US Ben Guerdane, last 4: LLLL Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to M'saken, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
ES Metlaoui, last 4: DDLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with AS Gabes, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours ES Metlaoui, collecting 0.8 points per game to 0.0 for US Ben Guerdane.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give US Ben Guerdane 1.4 xG, ES Metlaoui 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – US Ben Guerdane 50%, draw 27%, ES Metlaoui 23%.
Lower-risk option: US Ben Guerdane or draw (77%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.48.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: US Ben Guerdane 1–0 ES Metlaoui. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
US Ben Guerdane50%fair 2.00 · @2.05
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @2.80
ES Metlaoui23%fair 4.33 · @3.85
2.07Expected goals
1.36US Ben Guerdane xG
0.71ES Metlaoui xG
48%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
0–013%
1–112%
2–012%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: US Ben Guerdane 1.4 – 0.7 ES Metlaoui expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
US Ben Guerdane to win✗
50%
2.00
2.05
Double chance
US Ben Guerdane or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.48
Draw no bet
US Ben Guerdane (draw no bet)
68%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
ES Metlaoui +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.71
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
US Ben Guerdane to score first✗
57%
1.75
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT US Ben Guerdane / FT US Ben Guerdane✗
31%
3.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.85
–
Recent results
US Ben Guerdane – last 4
LLLL
22 Mar
@ M'saken
1–4
L
8 Mar
vs Club Africain
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs CS Sfaxien
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
ES Metlaoui – last 4
DDLD
22 Mar
vs AS Gabes
2–2
D
7 Mar
vs Olympique Béja
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Club Africain
0–5
L
25 Feb
vs ES Tunis
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between US Ben Guerdane and ES Metlaoui.
What is the prediction for US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?
On our numbers US Ben Guerdane have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and ES Metlaoui 23%.
How many goals will there be in US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?
Our predicted score is US Ben Guerdane 1–0 ES Metlaoui, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui?
US Ben Guerdane vs ES Metlaoui (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at 7 March Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
AS Gabes0