Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSur to win ✗38% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗71% · @1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.77
Smail vs Sur: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Smail welcome Sur for a Professional League fixture on Friday 6 March (19:00 WAT). In the table, Smail are 11th, lower half, on 6 points after 6 matches; Sur are 12th (in the drop zone) with 6. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Smail 1.5 xG, Sur 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 47% for three or more goals, 56% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Smail 36%, draw 25%, Sur 38%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.48 – longer than our fair 1.40, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Smail 1–1 Sur. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Smail36%fair 2.77 · @2.60
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.95
Sur38%fair 2.60 · @2.65
2.97Expected goals
1.47Smail xG
1.50Sur xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–28%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Smail 1.5 – 1.5 Sur expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sur to win✗
38%
2.60
2.65
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Sur (draw no bet)
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Smail +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.48 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Sur to score first✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sur / FT Sur✗
23%
4.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.77
–
Recent results
Smail – last 1
W
22 Feb
@ Saham
4–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Sur – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Bahla
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Al Nasr
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Smail and Sur.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Smail vs Sur?
On our numbers Smail have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sur 38%.
How many goals will there be in Smail vs Sur?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Smail vs Sur?
Our predicted score is Smail 1–1 Sur, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Smail vs Sur?
Smail vs Sur (Professional League) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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