Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 2 March the Paulista A1 brings Palmeiras against Sao Paulo at Arena Barueri. Kick-off: 00:30 WAT.
Current form
Palmeiras, last 4: WWDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Fluminense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Palmeiras 1.7 xG, Sao Paulo 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Palmeiras 60%, draw 25%, Sao Paulo 16%.
Lower-risk option: Palmeiras or draw (84%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palmeiras 1–0 Sao Paulo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Palmeiras60%fair 1.68 · @1.71
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.50
Sao Paulo16%fair 6.35 · @5.00
2.39Expected goals
1.69Palmeiras xG
0.71Sao Paulo xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.7 – 0.7 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
60%
1.68
1.71
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.90
Draw no bet
Palmeiras (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Palmeiras -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.09
First team to score
Palmeiras to score first✓
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✓
38%
2.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.90
–
Recent results
Palmeiras – last 4
WWDW
26 Feb
vs Fluminense
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Capivariano
4–0
W
16 Feb
vs Guarani Campinas
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Internacional
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 2
WW
25 Feb
@ Coritiba
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo.
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sao Paulo 16%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo (Paulista A1) kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Barueri.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A1 · Brazil · Arena Barueri
