Value bet: Cumbayá to win @ 2.60 – our chance 45% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCumbayá to win ✓45% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓11% · fair 9.09
El Nacional vs Cumbayá: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cumbayá travel to face El Nacional on Wednesday 8 July in the Liga Pro Serie B – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT. In the table, El Nacional are 12th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 22 matches; Cumbayá are 10th (in the drop zone) with 26. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
El Nacional, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Atletico FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Cumbayá, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over 22 de Julio, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Cumbayá, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.2 for El Nacional.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give El Nacional 1.1 xG, Cumbayá 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – El Nacional 29%, draw 26%, Cumbayá 45%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Cumbayá to win @2.60 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (52%, odds 1.83). Most likely score in line with that pick: El Nacional 0–1 Cumbayá. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
El Nacional29%fair 3.46 · @2.60
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @2.90
Cumbayá45%fair 2.24 · @2.60
2.64Expected goals
1.10El Nacional xG
1.54Cumbayá xG
48%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: El Nacional 1.1 – 1.5 Cumbayá expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cumbayá to win✓
45%
2.24
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.83
Draw no bet
Cumbayá (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
El Nacional +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Cumbayá to score first✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cumbayá / FT Cumbayá✗
28%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
11%
9.09
–
Recent results
El Nacional – last 6
LDLLLL
2 Jul
@ Atletico FC
0–3
L
11 Jun
vs Santo Domingo
0–0
D
7 Jun
@ Deportivo Cuenca Juniors
1–4
L
31 May
vs LDU Portoviejo
0–1
L
29 May
vs Universidad Catolica
1–4
L
24 May
@ San Antonio
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cumbayá – last 6
WLDWDD
2 Jul
vs 22 de Julio
4–0
W
10 Jun
@ Gualaceo SC
0–1
L
4 Jun
@ Cuniburo
1–1
D
30 May
vs Ind. Juniors
1–0
W
23 May
@ Santo Domingo
0–0
D
13 May
vs LDU Portoviejo
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between El Nacional and Cumbayá.
What is the prediction for El Nacional vs Cumbayá?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win El Nacional vs Cumbayá?
On our numbers El Nacional have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cumbayá 45%.
How many goals will there be in El Nacional vs Cumbayá?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for El Nacional vs Cumbayá?
Our predicted score is El Nacional 0–1 Cumbayá, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is El Nacional vs Cumbayá?
El Nacional vs Cumbayá (Liga Pro Serie B) kicks off on Wednesday 8 July 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
