Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.92 – our chance 55% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCD Motagua to win ✓54% · @1.65
Double chanceCD Motagua or draw ✓80% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.68
CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 12 March the Liga Nacional brings CD Motagua against Lobos Upnfm at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles. Kick-off: 00:15 WAT. In the table, CD Motagua are 4th, among the top four, on 28 points after 14 matches; Lobos Upnfm are 6th (upper half) with 19.
Current form
CD Motagua, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Atlético Choloma, away. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Lobos Upnfm, last 4: WWWL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Juticalpa, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give CD Motagua 1.6 xG, Lobos Upnfm 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – CD Motagua 54%, draw 26%, Lobos Upnfm 20%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.92.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.92 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.23). Most likely score in line with that pick: CD Motagua 1–0 Lobos Upnfm. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
CD Motagua54%fair 1.85 · @1.65
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.48
Lobos Upnfm20%fair 4.97 · @4.55
2.44Expected goals
1.59CD Motagua xG
0.86Lobos Upnfm xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: CD Motagua 1.6 – 0.9 Lobos Upnfm expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Motagua to win✓
54%
1.85
1.65
Double chance
CD Motagua or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
1.92 ▲
Draw no bet
CD Motagua (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Lobos Upnfm +1 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.23
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.05
First team to score
CD Motagua to score first✓
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Motagua / FT CD Motagua✓
33%
3.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.68
–
Recent results
CD Motagua – last 5
WDWWD
8 Mar
@ Atlético Choloma
3–1
W
2 Mar
vs Olancho
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Juticalpa
2–1
W
23 Feb
@ CD Olimpia
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs CD Marathon
1–1
D
1.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Lobos Upnfm – last 4
WWWL
9 Mar
vs Juticalpa
3–2
W
2 Mar
@ Génesis
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs Platense FC
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Real Espana
3–4
L
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Motagua and Lobos Upnfm.
What is the prediction for CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?
On our numbers CD Motagua have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lobos Upnfm 20%.
How many goals will there be in CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?
Our predicted score is CD Motagua 1–0 Lobos Upnfm, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?
CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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