Value bet: Paysandu to win @ 3.30 – our chance 35% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFerroviária to win ✓42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.89
Ferroviária vs Paysandu: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Paysandu travel to face Ferroviária on Tuesday 18 August in the Serie C, with Arena Fonte Luminosa the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Ferroviária are 1st on 11 points after 6 matches; Paysandu are 4th with 5.
Current form
Ferroviária, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Figueirense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Paysandu, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Confiança, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ferroviária 1.3 xG, Paysandu 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ferroviária 42%, draw 23%, Paysandu 35%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Paysandu to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ferroviária 1–1 Paysandu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ferroviária42%fair 2.37 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.20
Paysandu35%fair 2.85 · @3.30
2.46Expected goals
1.31Ferroviária xG
1.16Paysandu xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Ferroviária 1.3 – 1.2 Paysandu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviária to win✓
42%
2.37
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.80
Draw no bet
Ferroviária (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Paysandu +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
First team to score
Ferroviária to score first✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviária / FT Ferroviária✓
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.89
–
Recent results
Ferroviária – last 6
DDWLLW
8 Aug
@ Figueirense
2–2
D
25 Jul
vs Maranhão
0–0
D
12 Jul
@ Ituano
3–1
W
5 Jul
vs Caxias
0–1
L
27 Jun
@ AO Itabaiana
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Inter De Limeira
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Paysandu – last 6
WLWLLW
11 Aug
vs Confiança
2–1
W
27 Jul
@ Amazonas
1–2
L
12 Jul
vs Guarani Campinas
3–2
W
5 Jul
@ Ypiranga-RS
0–1
L
27 Jun
vs Santa Cruz
1–3
L
21 Jun
@ Maranhão
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviária and Paysandu.
What is the prediction for Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
On our numbers Ferroviária have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paysandu 35%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
Our predicted score is Ferroviária 1–1 Paysandu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
Ferroviária vs Paysandu (Serie C) kicks off on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Luminosa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
