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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

West Adelaide v Sturt Lions: numbers & prediction

South Australia NPL · Australia · Kilburn Sportsplex

West Adelaide

LDDLW
0–0
FT

Sturt Lions

WLWLL
West Adelaide 40%Draw 23%Sturt Lions 37% Expected goals 1.76 – 1.64
55%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Fair pick · fair odds 1.81 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓

4/10Rating
1.65Odds

Picks by market

ResultWest Adelaide to win ✗40% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.76
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗66% · fair 1.51
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.78

West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 18 July the South Australia NPL brings West Adelaide against Sturt Lions at Kilburn Sportsplex. Kick-off: 06:30 WAT.

Current form

West Adelaide, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FK Beograd, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Sturt Lions, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Playford City Patriots, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Sturt Lions, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for West Adelaide.

Head to head

When they last met (7 Mar 2026) it ended Sturt Lions 4–3 West Adelaide.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give West Adelaide 1.8 xG, Sturt Lions 1.6 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 66% and GG at 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – West Adelaide 40%, draw 23%, Sturt Lions 37%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (55%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: West Adelaide 1–1 Sturt Lions. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

West Adelaide40%fair 2.49 · @2.35
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.70
Sturt Lions37%fair 2.69 · @2.35
3.40Expected goals
1.76West Adelaide xG
1.64Sturt Lions xG
57%Both score
66%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
0–15%

From our goals model: West Adelaide 1.8 – 1.6 Sturt Lions expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultWest Adelaide to win ✗40%2.492.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77%1.291.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗57%1.76–
Draw no betWest Adelaide (draw no bet)52%1.93–
Asian handicapSturt Lions +1 (Asian handicap) ✓73%1.37–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗85%1.17–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗66%1.51–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓55%1.811.65
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓74%1.34–
First team to scoreWest Adelaide to score first ✗50%1.99–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓37%2.72–
Half-time / full-timeHT West Adelaide / FT West Adelaide ✗25%4.01–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%11.78–

Recent results

West Adelaide – last 6

LDDLWL
4 Jul@ FK Beograd0–1L
27 Jun@ Campbelltown City0–0D
20 Junvs Croydon Kings5–5D
12 Jun@ Adelaide Comets2–3L
7 Junvs Adelaide United II3–1W
31 Mayvs Adelaide City1–2L
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Sturt Lions – last 6

WLWLLW
4 Julvs Playford City Patriots1–0W
26 Jun@ West Torrens Birkalla1–4L
20 Junvs Para Hills Knights6–0W
13 Jun@ MetroStars0–1L
5 Jun@ Adelaide City1–4L
30 Mayvs FK Beograd2–1W
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

7 Mar 2026Sturt Lions v West Adelaide4–3
West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions head-to-head page →

More South Australia NPL predictions

FT Playford City Patriots1 MetroStars0 125%3.90X21%4.00254%1.64 1.3–1.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 57%@1.65 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.

Who will win West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions?

On our numbers West Adelaide have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sturt Lions 37%.

How many goals will there be in West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions?

Our predicted score is West Adelaide 1–1 Sturt Lions, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.

When is West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions?

West Adelaide vs Sturt Lions (South Australia NPL) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 06:30 (West Africa Time) at Kilburn Sportsplex.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.