Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.38 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.38Odds
1
Value bet: Joinville to win @ 4.45 – our chance 30% vs 22% implied by the price (edge +31%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSão Bernardo to win ✓44% · @1.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.11
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.92
Joinville vs São Bernardo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
São Bernardo travel to face Joinville on Tuesday 10 March in the Copa Do Brasil, with Arena Joinville the venue – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT.
Current form
Joinville, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Marcílio Dias, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Joinville 1.1 xG, São Bernardo 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Joinville 30%, draw 27%, São Bernardo 44%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.48.
Price worth noting: Joinville to win @4.45 – the bookmaker implies 22%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Joinville 1–1 São Bernardo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Joinville30%fair 3.39 · @4.45
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.00
São Bernardo44%fair 2.30 · @1.88
2.16Expected goals
1.07Joinville xG
1.09São Bernardo xG
50%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Joinville 1.1 – 1.1 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
São Bernardo to win✓
44%
2.30
1.88
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.48
Draw no bet
São Bernardo (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Joinville +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
1.11
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
São Bernardo to score first✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo✗
20%
4.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
13%
7.92
–
Recent results
Joinville – last 5
LLWLW
7 Mar
@ Marcílio Dias
0–2
L
28 Feb
vs Figueirense
0–3
L
24 Feb
vs CSA
1–0
W
19 Feb
@ Carlos Renaux
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Carlos Renaux
3–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
São Bernardo – last 2
WL
26 Feb
vs Atlético Alagoinhas
2–0
W
16 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Joinville and São Bernardo.
What is the prediction for Joinville vs São Bernardo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Joinville vs São Bernardo?
On our numbers Joinville have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 27% and São Bernardo 44%.
How many goals will there be in Joinville vs São Bernardo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Joinville vs São Bernardo?
Our predicted score is Joinville 1–1 São Bernardo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Joinville vs São Bernardo?
Joinville vs São Bernardo (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Joinville.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
