Value bet: Yanbian Longding to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultYanbian Longding to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceYanbian Longding or draw ✓81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.23
Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Saturday 4 July: Yanbian Longding v Heilongjiang Lava Spring in the League One, played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium. In the table, Yanbian Longding are 6th, upper half, on 46 points after 30 matches; Heilongjiang Lava Spring are 14th (in the drop zone) with 28. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Yanbian Longding, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Dongguan United, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring, last 5: DLDDL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Wuxi Wugou, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Yanbian Longding, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Yanbian Longding 1.8 xG, Heilongjiang Lava Spring 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Yanbian Longding 56%, draw 25%, Heilongjiang Lava Spring 19%.
Lower-risk option: Yanbian Longding or draw (81%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Yanbian Longding to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Yanbian Longding 1–0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Yanbian Longding56%fair 1.79 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.10
Heilongjiang Lava Spring19%fair 5.19 · @3.80
2.68Expected goals
1.76Yanbian Longding xG
0.91Heilongjiang Lava Spring xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Yanbian Longding 1.8 – 0.9 Heilongjiang Lava Spring expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Yanbian Longding to win✓
56%
1.79
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Yanbian Longding or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.80
Draw no bet
Yanbian Longding (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Heilongjiang Lava Spring +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Yanbian Longding to score first✓
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Yanbian Longding ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Yanbian Longding / FT Yanbian Longding✓
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.23
–
Recent results
Yanbian Longding – last 6
WLDWLD
27 Jun
@ Dongguan United
2–0
W
14 Jun
@ Nantong Zhiyun
0–2
L
30 May
vs Changchun Yatai
2–2
D
24 May
@ Guangzhou E-Power
4–3
W
16 May
@ Shanghai Second
0–1
L
10 May
vs Guangxi Hengchen
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Heilongjiang Lava Spring – last 6
DLDDLL
28 Jun
vs Wuxi Wugou
3–3
D
13 Jun
vs Guangzhou E-Power
1–3
L
30 May
@ Meizhou Kejia
2–2
D
23 May
@ Dongguan United
1–1
D
17 May
@ Shanghai Zetian
2–4
L
9 May
vs Changchun Yatai
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Yanbian Longding and Heilongjiang Lava Spring.
What is the prediction for Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
On our numbers Yanbian Longding have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Heilongjiang Lava Spring 19%.
How many goals will there be in Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
Our predicted score is Yanbian Longding 1–0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring (League One) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
