Smiltene 32%Draw 20%Super Nova 2 48%Expected goals 1.64 – 1.70
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: Smiltene to win @ 4.10 – our chance 32% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +30%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSuper Nova 2 to win ✓48% · @1.57
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.90
Smiltene vs Super Nova 2: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Smiltene welcome Super Nova 2 for a 1. Liga fixture on Wednesday 13 May (18:15 WAT). In the table, Smiltene are 9th, lower half, on 27 points after 26 matches; Super Nova 2 are 8th (lower half) with 29. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Smiltene, last 3: LLD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to JDFS Alberts, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 3.3 conceded per game.
Super Nova 2, last 3: WDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Rēzekne FA, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Super Nova 2, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.3 for Smiltene.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Smiltene 1.6 xG, Super Nova 2 1.7 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 55% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Smiltene 32%, draw 20%, Super Nova 2 48%.
Price worth noting: Smiltene to win @4.10 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Smiltene 1–2 Super Nova 2. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Smiltene32%fair 3.16 · @4.10
Draw20%fair 5.02 · @4.20
Super Nova 248%fair 2.06 · @1.57
3.34Expected goals
1.64Smiltene xG
1.70Super Nova 2 xG
55%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Smiltene 1.6 – 1.7 Super Nova 2 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Super Nova 2 to win✓
48%
2.06
1.57
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
–
Draw no bet
Super Nova 2 (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Smiltene +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
First team to score
Super Nova 2 to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
37%
2.69
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Super Nova 2 / FT Super Nova 2✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.90
–
Recent results
Smiltene – last 3
LLD
3 May
vs JDFS Alberts
2–3
L
12 Apr
@ Valmiera BSS
0–4
L
22 Mar
@ Rīgas FS II
3–3
D
1.7Scored / game
3.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Super Nova 2 – last 3
WDW
9 May
vs Rēzekne FA
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Skanste
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs JDFS Alberts
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Smiltene and Super Nova 2.
What is the prediction for Smiltene vs Super Nova 2?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Smiltene vs Super Nova 2?
On our numbers Smiltene have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Super Nova 2 48%.
How many goals will there be in Smiltene vs Super Nova 2?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Smiltene vs Super Nova 2?
Our predicted score is Smiltene 1–2 Super Nova 2, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Smiltene vs Super Nova 2?
Smiltene vs Super Nova 2 (1. Liga) kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
