Value bet: Smiltene to win @ 4.50 – our chance 31% vs 22% implied by the price (edge +38%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTukums II to win ✗49% · @1.53
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗69% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.15
Tukums II vs Smiltene: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Smiltene travel to face Tukums II on Sunday 24 May in the 1. Liga – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Tukums II are 12th, in the drop zone, on 20 points after 26 matches; Smiltene are 9th (lower half) with 27.
Current form
Tukums II, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Mārupe, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Smiltene, last 4: LLLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Super Nova 2, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 3.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Tukums II, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Smiltene.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tukums II 1.9 xG, Smiltene 1.9 xG – a total near 3.8. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tukums II 49%, draw 21%, Smiltene 31%.
Price worth noting: Smiltene to win @4.50 – the bookmaker implies 22%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tukums II 1–2 Smiltene. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tukums II49%fair 2.05 · @1.53
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @4.10
Smiltene31%fair 3.26 · @4.50
3.77Expected goals
1.86Tukums II xG
1.91Smiltene xG
60%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–18%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
1–35%
3–15%
From our goals model: Tukums II 1.9 – 1.9 Smiltene expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tukums II to win✗
49%
2.05
1.53
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
–
Draw no bet
Tukums II (draw no bet)
61%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Tukums II +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
–
First team to score
Smiltene to score first
50%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
35%
2.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Smiltene / FT Smiltene✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
13.15
–
Recent results
Tukums II – last 3
LLW
9 May
vs Mārupe
1–2
L
2 May
@ Leevon PPK
1–4
L
27 Apr
vs Skanste
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Smiltene – last 4
LLLD
13 May
vs Super Nova 2
0–2
L
3 May
vs JDFS Alberts
2–3
L
12 Apr
@ Valmiera BSS
0–4
L
22 Mar
@ Rīgas FS II
3–3
D
1.3Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tukums II and Smiltene.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Tukums II vs Smiltene?
On our numbers Tukums II have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Smiltene 31%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums II vs Smiltene?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums II vs Smiltene?
Our predicted score is Tukums II 1–2 Smiltene, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Tukums II vs Smiltene?
Tukums II vs Smiltene (1. Liga) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
