Value bet: Smiltene to win @ 1.91 – our chance 65% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSmiltene to win ✓65% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.82
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.54
Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Smiltene welcome Rēzekne FA for a 1. Liga fixture on Sunday 19 July (15:00 WAT). In the table, Smiltene are 9th, lower half, on 27 points after 26 matches; Rēzekne FA are 14th (in the drop zone) with 6. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Smiltene, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Mārupe, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Rēzekne FA, last 5: DLLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with JFK Ventspils, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Smiltene 2.8 xG, Rēzekne FA 1.1 xG – a total near 3.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 71% and GG at 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Smiltene 65%, draw 17%, Rēzekne FA 18%.
Price worth noting: Smiltene to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Smiltene 2–1 Rēzekne FA. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Smiltene65%fair 1.54 · @1.91
Draw17%fair 5.99 · @4.00
Rēzekne FA18%fair 5.45 · @3.00
3.92Expected goals
2.83Smiltene xG
1.10Rēzekne FA xG
55%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
3–18%
2–08%
3–07%
1–16%
4–16%
From our goals model: Smiltene 2.8 – 1.1 Rēzekne FA expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Smiltene to win✓
65%
1.54
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.20
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
–
Draw no bet
Smiltene (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Smiltene -1 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
–
First team to score
Smiltene to score first✓
71%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Smiltene ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Smiltene / FT Smiltene✓
50%
1.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.54
–
Recent results
Smiltene – last 6
LLLLDL
4 Jul
@ Mārupe
1–2
L
28 Jun
vs Skanste
2–4
L
22 Jun
vs Valmiera BSS
1–4
L
14 Jun
@ Riga FC II
0–2
L
24 May
@ Tukums II
1–1
D
13 May
vs Super Nova 2
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Rēzekne FA – last 6
DLLLLL
4 Jul
vs JFK Ventspils
1–1
D
27 Jun
vs JDFS Alberts
2–4
L
14 Jun
@ Rīgas FS II
0–3
L
30 May
@ Ķekava Auda
1–2
L
23 May
vs Riga FC II
1–3
L
9 May
@ Super Nova 2
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Smiltene and Rēzekne FA.
What is the prediction for Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA?
On our numbers Smiltene have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Rēzekne FA 18%.
How many goals will there be in Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA?
Our predicted score is Smiltene 2–1 Rēzekne FA, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA?
Smiltene vs Rēzekne FA (1. Liga) kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
