Value bet: Smiltene to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSmiltene to win ✓55% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓73% · @1.30
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.29
Smiltene vs Tukums II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tukums II travel to face Smiltene on Sunday 11 October in the 1. Liga – the ball rolls at 12:00 WAT. In the table, Smiltene are 9th, lower half, on 27 points after 26 matches; Tukums II are 12th (in the drop zone) with 20.
Current form
Smiltene, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Super Nova 2, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 3.0 conceded per game.
Tukums II, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over JFK Ventspils, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 3.2 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (24 May 2026) it ended Tukums II 1–1 Smiltene.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Smiltene 2.4 xG, Tukums II 1.7 xG – a total near 4.1. That is an open game on paper: 78% for three or more goals, 73% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Smiltene 55%, draw 20%, Tukums II 26%.
GG/NG: GG (73%) at 1.30.
Price worth noting: Smiltene to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Smiltene 2–1 Tukums II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Smiltene55%fair 1.83 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @3.40
Tukums II26%fair 3.92 · @3.10
4.12Expected goals
2.45Smiltene xG
1.67Tukums II xG
73%Both score
78%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
2–27%
1–17%
3–17%
1–26%
3–26%
From our goals model: Smiltene 2.4 – 1.7 Tukums II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Smiltene vs Tukums II?
On our numbers Smiltene have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Tukums II 26%.
How many goals will there be in Smiltene vs Tukums II?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Smiltene vs Tukums II?
Our predicted score is Smiltene 2–1 Tukums II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Smiltene vs Tukums II?
Smiltene vs Tukums II (1. Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
