Value bet: BFA to win @ 2.30 – our chance 47% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBFA to win ✓47% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.35
BFA vs Jonava: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 30 May the 1 Lyga brings BFA against Jonava at Sirvintu stadionas. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, BFA are 6th, upper half, on 50 points after 30 matches; Jonava are 10th (lower half) with 32. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
BFA, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Žalgiris II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Jonava, last 5: DLLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Babrungas, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours BFA, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Jonava.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give BFA 1.7 xG, Jonava 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – BFA 47%, draw 24%, Jonava 29%.
Price worth noting: BFA to win @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (51%, odds 1.90). Most likely score in line with that pick: BFA 2–1 Jonava. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
BFA47%fair 2.14 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.40
Jonava29%fair 3.40 · @2.60
2.80Expected goals
1.70BFA xG
1.10Jonava xG
51%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
1–26%
From our goals model: BFA 1.7 – 1.1 Jonava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
BFA
Jonava
Attack vs 1 Lyga average
+13%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.77
0.89
Our own ratings from every 1 Lyga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
BFA to win✓
47%
2.14
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
–
Draw no bet
BFA (draw no bet)✓
61%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Jonava +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.94
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
BFA to score first✓
57%
1.75
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT BFA / FT BFA✗
31%
3.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.35
–
Recent results
BFA – last 6
WWLWWD
22 May
@ Žalgiris II
4–3
W
19 May
vs Garliava
2–1
W
1 May
@ Babrungas
0–4
L
28 Apr
vs Babrungas
1–0
W
17 Apr
@ Neptūną Klaipėda
3–1
W
4 Apr
vs Dainava
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Jonava – last 6
DLLDWD
22 May
vs Babrungas
1–1
D
8 May
vs Neptūną Klaipėda
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Šiauliai
0–4
L
19 Apr
@ FA Šiauliai II
2–2
D
4 Apr
vs Kauno Žalgiris II
3–1
W
18 Mar
vs Be1 NFA
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BFA and Jonava.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win BFA vs Jonava?
On our numbers BFA have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Jonava 29%.
How many goals will there be in BFA vs Jonava?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BFA vs Jonava?
Our predicted score is BFA 2–1 Jonava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is BFA vs Jonava?
BFA vs Jonava (1 Lyga) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Sirvintu stadionas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
