Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · @1.36
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.39
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.84
Santamarina vs Alvarado: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 11 July the Torneo Federal A brings Santamarina against Alvarado at Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Santamarina are 36th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 16 matches; Alvarado are 5th (upper half) with 27. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Santamarina, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Germinal de Rawson, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Alvarado, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Germinal de Rawson, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Alvarado, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Santamarina.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santamarina 0.5 xG, Alvarado 1.3 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 72% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santamarina 16%, draw 27%, Alvarado 57%.
GG/NG: NG (58%) at 1.36.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alvarado to win (57%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santamarina 0–1 Alvarado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santamarina16%fair 6.32 · @5.50
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.00
Alvarado57%fair 1.75 · @1.62
1.84Expected goals
0.54Santamarina xG
1.30Alvarado xG
42%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–121%
0–016%
0–213%
1–111%
1–09%
1–27%
From our goals model: Santamarina 0.5 – 1.3 Alvarado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Santamarina
Alvarado
Attack vs Torneo Federal A average
-29%
+28%
Goals conceded vs average
+47%
-31%
Our expected goals here
0.59
1.34
Our own ratings from every Torneo Federal A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alvarado to win✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Double chance
Alvarado or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.36
Draw no bet
Alvarado (draw no bet)
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Santamarina +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Alvarado to score first✗
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alvarado / FT Alvarado✗
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
21%
4.84
–
Recent results
Santamarina – last 6
LLDWLL
28 Jun
@ Germinal de Rawson
0–1
L
20 Jun
vs Villa Mitre
0–2
L
14 Jun
@ Circulo Deportivo
0–0
D
7 Jun
vs Kimberley Mar del Plata
1–0
W
31 May
@ Sol de Mayo
2–3
L
24 May
vs Guillermo Brown
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Alvarado – last 6
WLWDWD
5 Jul
vs Germinal de Rawson
5–0
W
28 Jun
@ Villa Mitre
0–1
L
20 Jun
vs Circulo Deportivo
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Kimberley Mar del Plata
2–2
D
7 Jun
vs Sol de Mayo
2–0
W
31 May
@ Guillermo Brown
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santamarina and Alvarado.
What is the prediction for Santamarina vs Alvarado?
Our pick is Alvarado to win with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Santamarina vs Alvarado?
On our numbers Santamarina have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Alvarado 57%.
How many goals will there be in Santamarina vs Alvarado?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santamarina vs Alvarado?
Our predicted score is Santamarina 0–1 Alvarado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Santamarina vs Alvarado?
Santamarina vs Alvarado (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
