Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultRed Bull Salzburg to win ✗42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.24
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Red Bull Salzburg travel to face Sturm Graz on Friday 20 March in the Bundesliga, with Merkur-Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 19:30 WAT. In the table, Sturm Graz are 5th, upper half, on 19 points after 12 matches; Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd (among the top four) with 30.
Current form
Sturm Graz, last 4: WWDW Their latest outing: 5–2 win over Austria Vienna, away. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Red Bull Salzburg, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Rapid Vienna, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sturm Graz, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.8 for Red Bull Salzburg.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sturm Graz 1.4 xG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.6 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sturm Graz 34%, draw 24%, Red Bull Salzburg 42%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sturm Graz34%fair 2.97 · @3.10
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.45
Red Bull Salzburg42%fair 2.37 · @2.20
3.07Expected goals
1.44Sturm Graz xG
1.64Red Bull Salzburg xG
65%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 1.4 – 1.6 Red Bull Salzburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Red Bull Salzburg to win✗
42%
2.37
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.53
1.55
Draw no bet
Red Bull Salzburg (draw no bet)
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Sturm Graz +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.17
First team to score
Red Bull Salzburg to score first
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.56
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Red Bull Salzburg / FT Red Bull Salzburg✗
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.24
–
Recent results
Sturm Graz – last 4
WWDW
15 Mar
@ Austria Vienna
5–2
W
8 Mar
vs SCR Altach
2–0
W
1 Mar
@ Wolfsberger AC
2–2
D
22 Feb
vs FC BW Linz
1–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Red Bull Salzburg – last 6
LLLDWD
15 Mar
vs Rapid Vienna
0–1
L
8 Mar
@ Rapid Vienna
0–1
L
4 Mar
vs SCR Altach
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs TSV Hartberg
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Lask Linz
5–1
W
15 Feb
@ Grazer AK
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg.
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Red Bull Salzburg 42%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Merkur-Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
