Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Rapid Vienna to win @ 3.65 – our chance 35% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSturm Graz to win ✓44% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.50
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Rapid Vienna travel to face Sturm Graz on Sunday 17 May in the Bundesliga, with Merkur-Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 13:30 WAT. In the table, Sturm Graz are 5th, upper half, on 19 points after 12 matches; Rapid Vienna are 1st (leading the league) with 33. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sturm Graz, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Lask Linz, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Rapid Vienna, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Lask Linz, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sturm Graz, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Rapid Vienna.
Head to head
When they last met (5 Apr 2026) it ended Rapid Vienna 0–2 Sturm Graz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sturm Graz 1.4 xG, Rapid Vienna 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sturm Graz 44%, draw 21%, Rapid Vienna 35%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Rapid Vienna to win @3.65 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sturm Graz 1–1 Rapid Vienna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sturm Graz44%fair 2.25 · @1.90
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.70
Rapid Vienna35%fair 2.88 · @3.65
2.93Expected goals
1.40Sturm Graz xG
1.53Rapid Vienna xG
62%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 1.4 – 1.5 Rapid Vienna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Rapid Vienna 35%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 1–1 Rapid Vienna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Merkur-Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
