Progreso 39%Draw 28%Boston River 33%Expected goals 1.19 – 0.99
80%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Progreso to win @ 2.72 – our chance 39% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultProgreso to win39% · @2.72
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.61
Progreso vs Boston River: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 22 March the Primera División Apertura brings Progreso against Boston River at Parque Abraham Paladino. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Boston River are 11th (lower half) with 15.
Current form
Boston River, last 4: LWDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Liverpool Montevideo, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 1.2 xG, Boston River 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 39%, draw 28%, Boston River 33%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Progreso to win @2.72 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 1–0 Boston River. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progreso39%fair 2.56 · @2.72
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.10
Boston River33%fair 3.01 · @2.52
2.18Expected goals
1.19Progreso xG
0.99Boston River xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.2 – 1.0 Boston River expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Progreso
Boston River
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-10%
-15%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+8%
Our expected goals here
1.25
0.93
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Progreso to win
39%
2.56
2.72 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.38
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.93
1.85
Draw no bet
Progreso (draw no bet)
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Boston River +1 (Asian handicap)
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.53
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Progreso to score first
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Progreso / FT Progreso
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.61
–
Recent results
Progreso – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Boston River – last 4
LWDL
10 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Cerro
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Danubio
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Boston River.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Boston River?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Progreso vs Boston River?
On our numbers Progreso have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Boston River 33%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Boston River?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Boston River?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–0 Boston River, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Boston River?
Progreso vs Boston River (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
