San Lorenzo 36%Draw 29%Santos 35%Expected goals 0.93 – 1.09
66%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Santos to win @ 3.35 – our chance 35% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSan Lorenzo to win ✗36% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.07
San Lorenzo vs Santos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 28 April the CONMEBOL Sudamericana brings San Lorenzo against Santos at Pedro Bidegain. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, San Lorenzo are 3rd on 7 points after 6 matches; Santos are 2nd with 7. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
San Lorenzo, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Platense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Santos, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Coritiba, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours San Lorenzo, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Santos.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Lorenzo 0.9 xG, Santos 1.1 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Lorenzo 36%, draw 29%, Santos 35%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Santos to win @3.35 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Lorenzo 0–1 Santos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Lorenzo36%fair 2.80 · @2.30
Draw29%fair 3.48 · @2.98
Santos35%fair 2.82 · @3.35
2.01Expected goals
0.93San Lorenzo xG
1.09Santos xG
49%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
1–113%
0–013%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: San Lorenzo 0.9 – 1.1 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Lorenzo to win✗
36%
2.80
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
71%
1.40
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.67
Draw no bet
San Lorenzo (draw no bet)
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
San Lorenzo +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
1.04
First team to score
Santos to score first
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.07
–
Recent results
San Lorenzo – last 6
WDWDWD
25 Apr
@ Platense
1–0
W
20 Apr
vs Velez Sarsfield
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
2–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Deportivo Riestra
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Santos – last 6
DDWLWL
22 Apr
vs Coritiba
0–0
D
15 Apr
vs Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
12 Apr
vs Atletico-MG
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Remo
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Internacional
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Lorenzo and Santos.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Santos?
On our numbers San Lorenzo have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Santos 35%.
How many goals will there be in San Lorenzo vs Santos?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Lorenzo vs Santos?
Our predicted score is San Lorenzo 0–1 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is San Lorenzo vs Santos?
San Lorenzo vs Santos (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Pedro Bidegain.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
