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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Macara v Alianza Atletico: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · South America · Estadio Bellavista

Macara

WDWLW
0–0
FT

Alianza Atletico

LLLWL
Macara 64%Draw 21%Alianza Atletico 15% Expected goals 1.82 – 0.79
73%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.30Odds

Picks by market

ResultMacara to win ✗64% · @1.39
Double chanceMacara or draw ✓85% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.46

Macara vs Alianza Atletico: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

03:00 WAT, Friday 22 May: Macara v Alianza Atletico in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, played at Estadio Bellavista. In the table, Macara are 1st on 10 points after 6 matches; Alianza Atletico are 4th with 2.

Current form

Macara, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Manta FC, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Alianza Atletico, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Deportivo Garcilaso, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Macara, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Alianza Atletico.

Head to head

When they last met (1 May 2026) it ended Alianza Atletico 0–2 Macara.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Macara 1.8 xG, Alianza Atletico 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 49%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Macara 64%, draw 21%, Alianza Atletico 15%.
  • GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.60.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Macara 2–0 Alianza Atletico. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Macara64%fair 1.56 · @1.39
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @4.20
Alianza Atletico15%fair 6.83 · @8.90
2.61Expected goals
1.82Macara xG
0.79Alianza Atletico xG
49%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%

From our goals model: Macara 1.8 – 0.8 Alianza Atletico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMacara to win ✗64%1.561.39
Double chanceMacara or draw ✓85%1.171.05
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓51%1.981.60
Draw no betMacara (draw no bet)81%1.23–
Asian handicapMacara -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73%1.371.30
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓51%1.951.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73%1.371.30
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓86%1.161.11
First team to scoreMacara to score first ✗65%1.55–
Half-time resultMacara ahead at half-time ✗44%2.29–
Half-time / full-timeHT Macara / FT Macara ✗39%2.58–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13%7.46–

Recent results

Macara – last 6

WDWLWW
11 May@ Manta FC1–0W
7 Mayvs Tigre2–2D
1 May@ Alianza Atletico2–0W
24 Apr@ Universidad Catolica0–4L
20 Aprvs Barcelona SC3–1W
16 Apr@ Tigre1–0W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Alianza Atletico – last 6

LLLWLL
11 May@ Deportivo Garcilaso1–2L
7 Mayvs America de Cali0–2L
1 Mayvs Macara0–2L
27 Apr@ Universitario2–1W
22 Apr@ Comerciantes Unidos0–1L
16 Apr@ America de Cali1–2L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

1 May 2026Alianza Atletico v Macara0–2
Macara vs Alianza Atletico head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Sudamericana table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Macara6240+310
2Tigre6231+39
3America de Cali6231+19
4Alianza Atletico6024-72

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions

League hub
– Racing Club1 Caracas FC1 162%1.16X19%6.50219%20.00 1.7–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.20
FT Blooming0 Carabobo FC2 126%3.30X26%3.25248%2.18 0.9–1.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Macara vs Alianza Atletico?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Macara vs Alianza Atletico?

On our numbers Macara have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Alianza Atletico 15%.

How many goals will there be in Macara vs Alianza Atletico?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Macara vs Alianza Atletico?

Our predicted score is Macara 2–0 Alianza Atletico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Macara vs Alianza Atletico?

Macara vs Alianza Atletico (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Bellavista.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.