Value bet: Al Najma to win @ 2.65 – our chance 40% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAl Najma to win ✗40% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.63
Malkiya vs Al Najma: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 28 April the Premier League brings Malkiya against Al Najma. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Malkiya are 12th, in the drop zone, on 2 points after 7 matches; Al Najma are 8th (lower half) with 8.
Current form
Al Najma, last 4: LDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Budaiya, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Malkiya 1.1 xG, Al Najma 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Malkiya 33%, draw 26%, Al Najma 40%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Al Najma to win @2.65 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Malkiya 1–1 Al Najma. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Malkiya33%fair 2.99 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.00
Al Najma40%fair 2.48 · @2.65
2.46Expected goals
1.12Malkiya xG
1.34Al Najma xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–29%
0–09%
0–28%
From our goals model: Malkiya 1.1 – 1.3 Al Najma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Najma to win✗
40%
2.48
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.85
Draw no bet
Al Najma (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Malkiya +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
First team to score
Al Najma to score first✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Najma / FT Al Najma✗
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.63
–
Recent results
Malkiya
No recent results on record.
Al Najma – last 4
LDWL
16 Apr
vs Budaiya
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Al Shabab
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Al-Hidd
1–0
W
20 Feb
@ Al Ahli
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malkiya and Al Najma.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Malkiya vs Al Najma?
On our numbers Malkiya have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Al Najma 40%.
How many goals will there be in Malkiya vs Al Najma?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malkiya vs Al Najma?
Our predicted score is Malkiya 1–1 Al Najma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Malkiya vs Al Najma?
Malkiya vs Al Najma (Premier League) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Al Shabab1
Bahrain SC0