Fakel 39%Draw 28%Rodina Moskva 32%Expected goals 1.25 – 1.18
67%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.41 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.41Odds
2
Value bet: Rodina Moskva to win @ 3.56 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFakel to win ✗39% · @2.27
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.39
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.98
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.35
Fakel vs Rodina Moskva: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:45 WAT, Monday 13 April: Fakel v Rodina Moskva in the First League, played at Fakel Stadium.
Current form
Fakel, last 4: WWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Arsenal Tula, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Rodina Moskva, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over FK Sokol Saratov, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fakel 1.2 xG, Rodina Moskva 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fakel 39%, draw 28%, Rodina Moskva 32%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.98.
Price worth noting: Rodina Moskva to win @3.56 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (67%, odds 1.41). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fakel 1–1 Rodina Moskva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fakel39%fair 2.54 · @2.27
Draw28%fair 3.52 · @2.79
Rodina Moskva32%fair 3.11 · @3.56
2.42Expected goals
1.25Fakel xG
1.18Rodina Moskva xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.2 – 1.2 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Fakel
Rodina Moskva
Attack vs First League average
-1%
+29%
Goals conceded vs average
-6%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.35
1.41
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fakel to win✗
39%
2.54
2.27
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.40
1.39
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.98 ▲
Draw no bet
Fakel (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Rodina Moskva +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.41
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.01
First team to score
Fakel to score first✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fakel / FT Fakel✗
22%
4.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.35
–
Recent results
Fakel – last 4
WWLW
5 Apr
@ Arsenal Tula
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ FK Neftekhimik
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Ural
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Rodina Moskva – last 6
WWWDWW
5 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs Ural
3–1
W
23 Mar
vs Chayka
5–2
W
14 Mar
@ Ska-khabarovsk
2–2
D
8 Mar
@ Torpedo Moskva
2–0
W
2 Mar
vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
2–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fakel and Rodina Moskva.
What is the prediction for Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.
Who will win Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Fakel have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Rodina Moskva 32%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Fakel vs Rodina Moskva (First League) kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
