Value bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 2.08 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultChertanovo Moscow to win ✓68% · @1.31
Double chanceChertanovo Moscow or draw ✓88% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.51
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.36
Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Iskra Smolensk welcome Chertanovo Moscow for a Second League Group 2 fixture on Saturday 15 August (12:00 WAT). In the table, Iskra Smolensk are 14th, in the drop zone, on 15 points after 21 matches; Chertanovo Moscow are 5th (upper half) with 39. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Iskra Smolensk, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Kaluga, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Chertanovo Moscow, last 5: WLLDD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Chita, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Chertanovo Moscow, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.2 for Iskra Smolensk.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Iskra Smolensk 0.9 xG, Chertanovo Moscow 2.4 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Iskra Smolensk 12%, draw 20%, Chertanovo Moscow 68%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.51.
Price worth noting: Under 3.5 goals @2.08 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.26). Most likely score in line with that pick: Iskra Smolensk 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Iskra Smolensk12%fair 8.38 · @8.60
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @4.70
Chertanovo Moscow68%fair 1.48 · @1.31
3.29Expected goals
0.93Iskra Smolensk xG
2.36Chertanovo Moscow xG
60%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–210%
1–210%
0–19%
1–18%
0–38%
1–38%
From our goals model: Iskra Smolensk 0.9 – 2.4 Chertanovo Moscow expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chertanovo Moscow to win✓
68%
1.48
1.31
Double chance
Chertanovo Moscow or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.51
Draw no bet
Chertanovo Moscow (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Chertanovo Moscow -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.26
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
2.08 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.46
First team to score
Chertanovo Moscow to score first✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Chertanovo Moscow ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chertanovo Moscow / FT Chertanovo Moscow✓
46%
2.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.36
–
Recent results
Iskra Smolensk – last 6
LLDLLL
12 Aug
@ Kaluga
0–5
L
8 Aug
@ Kosmos Dolgoprudny
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Dinamo St. Petersburg
1–1
D
26 Jul
@ Cherepovets
1–2
L
4 Jul
vs Tver
2–4
L
21 Jun
@ Murom
0–6
L
0.7Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chertanovo Moscow – last 6
WLLDDD
12 Aug
vs Chita
3–0
W
9 Aug
vs Murom
1–2
L
2 Aug
@ Luki-Energiya
2–3
L
26 Jul
vs Zvezda St. Petersburg
1–1
D
5 Jul
@ Irkutsk
1–1
D
28 Jun
vs Dinamo Vologda
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Iskra Smolensk and Chertanovo Moscow.
What is the prediction for Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow?
On our numbers Iskra Smolensk have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Chertanovo Moscow 68%.
How many goals will there be in Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow?
Our predicted score is Iskra Smolensk 1–2 Chertanovo Moscow, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow?
Iskra Smolensk vs Chertanovo Moscow (Second League Group 2) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
