Metallurg Lipetsk v Strogino Prediction & Expected Goals (19 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMetallurg Lipetsk to win ✓59% · @1.77

Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.16

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.67

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.19

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.12

Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

12:00 WAT, Saturday 19 September: Metallurg Lipetsk v Strogino in the Second League Group 3, played at Stadion Metallurg. In the table, Metallurg Lipetsk are 7th, upper half, on 38 points after 22 matches; Strogino are 10th (lower half) with 25. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Metallurg Lipetsk, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over SKA Khabarovsk II, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Strogino, last 5: WWLLD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Zenit Penza, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (30 May 2026) it ended Strogino 2–2 Metallurg Lipetsk.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Metallurg Lipetsk 1.9 xG, Strogino 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Metallurg Lipetsk 59%, draw 17%, Strogino 25%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.67.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Metallurg Lipetsk 1–1 Strogino. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Metallurg Lipetsk59%fair 1.71 · @1.77

Draw17%fair 5.92 · @4.50

Strogino25%fair 4.07 · @3.32

3.00Expected goals

1.89Metallurg Lipetsk xG

1.10Strogino xG

61%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%

2–110%

1–09%

2–09%

3–16%

1–26%

From our goals model: Metallurg Lipetsk 1.9 – 1.1 Strogino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Metallurg Lipetsk to win ✓	59%	1.71	1.77
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	83%	1.20	1.16
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	61%	1.64	1.67
Draw no bet	Metallurg Lipetsk (draw no bet) ✓	70%	1.42	–
Asian handicap	Strogino +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	68%	1.48	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	79%	1.27	1.19
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	58%	1.73	1.58
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	64%	1.56	1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	82%	1.23	–
First team to score	Metallurg Lipetsk to score first ✓	60%	1.67	–
Half-time result	Metallurg Lipetsk ahead at half-time ✓	41%	2.42	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Metallurg Lipetsk / FT Metallurg Lipetsk ✓	35%	2.86	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.12	–

Metallurg Lipetsk – last 6

WLLWLD

12 Sep	@ SKA Khabarovsk II	3–1	W
5 Sep	vs Shumbrat	0–1	L
29 Aug	@ FK Spartak Tambov	1–3	L
22 Aug	vs Avangard Kursk	2–1	W
15 Aug	@ Volna Nizhegorodskaya	2–3	L
12 Aug	@ Murom	0–0	D

1.3Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Strogino – last 6

WWLLDL

13 Sep	vs Zenit Penza	3–0	W
6 Sep	@ Arsenal Tula II	2–1	W
30 Aug	vs Saturn Ramenskoye	0–2	L
22 Aug	vs SKA Khabarovsk II	1–2	L
15 Aug	@ Shumbrat	1–1	D
12 Aug	vs Torpedo Vladimir	0–3	L

1.2Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	18	2	2	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	17	2	3	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	12	4	6	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	12	4	6	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	11	7	3	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	12	3	7	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	11	5	6	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	8	6	8	-1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	8	4	10	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	7	4	11	-10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	7	3	12	-8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	7	2	12	-16	23
13	Orel	22	6	5	11	-13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	4	2	16	-20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	2	8	12	-25	14
16	Kvant	22	1	3	18	-42	6

Team

Pts

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

+34

+25

+11

+10

+22

+16

+14

-1

-10

-8

-16

-13

-20

-25

-42

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino?

On our numbers Metallurg Lipetsk have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Strogino 25%.

How many goals will there be in Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino?

Our predicted score is Metallurg Lipetsk 1–1 Strogino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino?

Metallurg Lipetsk vs Strogino (Second League Group 3) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Metallurg.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Metallurg Lipetsk v Strogino: numbers & prediction