Metallurg Lipetsk v Zenit Penza Prediction & Expected Goals (3 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMetallurg Lipetsk to win ✓64% · @1.69

Double chanceEither team to win ✓84% · @1.27

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.60

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.16

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05

Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Zenit Penza travel to face Metallurg Lipetsk on Saturday 3 October in the Second League Group 3, with Stadion Metallurg the venue – the ball rolls at 12:00 WAT. In the table, Metallurg Lipetsk are 7th, upper half, on 38 points after 22 matches; Zenit Penza are 12th (lower half) with 23. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Metallurg Lipetsk, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Arsenal Tula II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Zenit Penza, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Ryazan, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (13 Jun 2026) it ended Zenit Penza 2–3 Metallurg Lipetsk.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Metallurg Lipetsk 2.0 xG, Zenit Penza 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Metallurg Lipetsk 64%, draw 16%, Zenit Penza 20%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.60.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Metallurg Lipetsk to win (64%, odds 1.69 – longer than our fair 1.57, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Metallurg Lipetsk 1–0 Zenit Penza. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Metallurg Lipetsk64%fair 1.57 · @1.69

Draw16%fair 6.32 · @4.39

Zenit Penza20%fair 4.93 · @4.36

2.97Expected goals

2.00Metallurg Lipetsk xG

0.97Zenit Penza xG

61%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–010%

2–010%

1–110%

2–110%

3–07%

3–17%

From our goals model: Metallurg Lipetsk 2.0 – 1.0 Zenit Penza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Metallurg Lipetsk to win ✓	64%	1.57	1.69 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	84%	1.19	1.27 ▲
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	61%	1.63	1.60
Draw no bet	Metallurg Lipetsk (draw no bet) ✓	76%	1.32	–
Asian handicap	Metallurg Lipetsk -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.26	1.16
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	58%	1.73	1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	63%	1.59	1.56
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	1.19
First team to score	Metallurg Lipetsk to score first ✓	64%	1.57	–
Half-time result	Metallurg Lipetsk ahead at half-time ✓	45%	2.24	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Metallurg Lipetsk / FT Metallurg Lipetsk ✓	39%	2.56	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.05	–

Metallurg Lipetsk – last 6

DWWLLW

27 Sep	@ Arsenal Tula II	0–0	D
19 Sep	vs Strogino	1–0	W
12 Sep	@ SKA Khabarovsk II	3–1	W
5 Sep	vs Shumbrat	0–1	L
29 Aug	@ FK Spartak Tambov	1–3	L
22 Aug	vs Avangard Kursk	2–1	W

1.2Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Zenit Penza – last 6

LDDLWW

30 Sep	@ Ryazan	0–2	L
26 Sep	vs Saturn Ramenskoye	1–1	D
19 Sep	vs Arsenal Tula II	0–0	D
13 Sep	@ Strogino	0–3	L
5 Sep	vs SKA Khabarovsk II	2–1	W
29 Aug	@ Shumbrat	3–1	W

1.0Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	18	2	2	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	17	2	3	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	12	4	6	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	12	4	6	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	11	7	3	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	12	3	7	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	11	5	6	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	8	6	8	-1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	8	4	10	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	7	4	11	-10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	7	3	12	-8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	7	2	12	-16	23
13	Orel	22	6	5	11	-13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	4	2	16	-20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	2	8	12	-25	14
16	Kvant	22	1	3	18	-42	6

Team

Pts

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

+34

+25

+11

+10

+22

+16

+14

-1

-10

-8

-16

-13

-20

-25

-42

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza?

Our pick is Metallurg Lipetsk to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.69.

Who will win Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza?

On our numbers Metallurg Lipetsk have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Zenit Penza 20%.

How many goals will there be in Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza?

Our predicted score is Metallurg Lipetsk 1–0 Zenit Penza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza?

Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza (Second League Group 3) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Metallurg.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Metallurg Lipetsk v Zenit Penza: numbers & prediction