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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

AEL v Pafos: numbers & prediction

Cup · Cyprus · Alphamega Stadium

AEL

DLWL
1–2
FT

Pafos

DDDW
AEL 24%Draw 25%Pafos 51% Expected goals 1.08 – 1.49
73%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.30Odds

Picks by market

ResultPafos to win ✓51% · @1.75
Double chancePafos or draw ✓76% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 10.90

AEL vs Pafos: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

17:00 WAT, Wednesday 8 April: AEL v Pafos in the Cup, played at Alphamega Stadium.

Current form

AEL, last 4: DLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Ethnikos Achna, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Pafos, last 4: DDDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Apollon Limassol, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Pafos, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for AEL.

Head to head

When they last met (15 Feb 2026) it ended AEL 0–1 Pafos.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give AEL 1.1 xG, Pafos 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – AEL 24%, draw 25%, Pafos 51%.
  • Lower-risk option: Pafos or draw (76%) at 1.15.
  • GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.73.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: AEL 1–1 Pafos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

AEL24%fair 4.11 · @4.20
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.45
Pafos51%fair 1.97 · @1.75
2.57Expected goals
1.08AEL xG
1.49Pafos xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–08%

From our goals model: AEL 1.1 – 1.5 Pafos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPafos to win ✓51%1.971.75
Double chancePafos or draw ✓76%1.321.15
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓57%1.751.73
Draw no betPafos (draw no bet) ✓68%1.48–
Asian handicapAEL +1 (Asian handicap)70%1.43–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73%1.381.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗51%1.951.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73%1.381.30
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓88%1.13–
First team to scorePafos to score first53%1.87–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗43%2.32–
Half-time / full-timeHT Pafos / FT Pafos ✓28%3.62–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9%10.90–

Recent results

AEL – last 4

DLWL
22 Marvs Ethnikos Achna1–1D
8 Mar@ Apollon Limassol1–2L
20 Feb@ Enosis2–0W
15 Febvs Pafos0–1L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Pafos – last 4

DDDW
22 Marvs Apollon Limassol1–1D
1 Mar@ Aris2–2D
21 Febvs Anorthosis0–0D
15 Feb@ AEL1–0W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Head to head

15 Feb 2026AEL v Pafos0–1
AEL vs Pafos head-to-head page →

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AEL vs Pafos?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win AEL vs Pafos?

On our numbers AEL have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Pafos 51%.

How many goals will there be in AEL vs Pafos?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for AEL vs Pafos?

Our predicted score is AEL 1–1 Pafos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is AEL vs Pafos?

AEL vs Pafos (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Alphamega Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.