Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Liverpool Montevideo travel to face Penarol on Tuesday 14 April in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Campeón del Siglo the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Penarol are 5th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Liverpool Montevideo are 1st (leading the league) with 30.
Current form
Penarol, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Santa Fe, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: DDDWW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Progreso, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.4 xG, Liverpool Montevideo 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 53%, draw 27%, Liverpool Montevideo 20%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Liverpool Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol53%fair 1.87 · @1.65
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.45
Liverpool Montevideo20%fair 5.09 · @5.20
2.29Expected goals
1.41Penarol xG
0.88Liverpool Montevideo xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
2–010%
0–19%
2–19%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.4 – 0.9 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+24%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
-31%
Our expected goals here
1.10
0.87
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
53%
1.87
1.65
Double chance
Penarol or draw✗
80%
1.24
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.95
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)✗
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Liverpool Montevideo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
29%
3.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.29
–
Recent results
Penarol – last 6
DLWWWD
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
21 Mar
vs Cerro
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Danubio
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
DDDWWD
31 Mar
@ Progreso
3–3
D
24 Mar
vs Central Espanol
3–3
D
17 Mar
vs Atletico Torque
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Boston River
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Cerro Largo
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Independiente Medellin
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Liverpool Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Penarol have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Liverpool Montevideo 20%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Penarol vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
