Independência 15%Draw 22%Nacional AM 64%Expected goals 0.82 – 1.55
67%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.70
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultNacional AM to win64% · @1.17
Double chanceNacional AM or draw85% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.85
Independência vs Nacional AM: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 29 March the brings Independência against Nacional AM. Kick-off: 22:00 WAT.
Current form
Independência, last 4: DLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Guaporé, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Nacional AM, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Trem, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Nacional AM, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Independência.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independência 0.8 xG, Nacional AM 1.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independência 15%, draw 22%, Nacional AM 64%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (67%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.50, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independência 0–1 Nacional AM. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independência15%fair 6.77 · @14.00
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @5.75
Nacional AM64%fair 1.57 · @1.17
2.37Expected goals
0.82Independência xG
1.55Nacional AM xG
55%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–112%
0–211%
0–09%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Independência 0.8 – 1.6 Nacional AM expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional AM to win
64%
1.57
1.17
Double chance
Nacional AM or draw
85%
1.17
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Nacional AM (draw no bet)
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Independência +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.36
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
54%
1.87
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.70 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
82%
1.23
1.28
First team to score
Nacional AM to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional AM / FT Nacional AM
33%
3.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
10.85
–
Recent results
Independência – last 4
DLWL
26 Mar
vs Guaporé
0–0
D
6 Mar
vs Galvez
1–2
L
3 Mar
@ ADESG
2–0
W
26 Feb
@ Águia de Marabá
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Nacional AM – last 5
WWWLL
27 Mar
vs Trem
2–1
W
9 Mar
@ Manauara
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Amazonas
3–0
W
25 Feb
@ Novorizontino
0–4
L
20 Feb
vs Manaus FC
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independência and Nacional AM.
What is the prediction for Independência vs Nacional AM?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Independência vs Nacional AM?
On our numbers Independência have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nacional AM 64%.
How many goals will there be in Independência vs Nacional AM?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independência vs Nacional AM?
Our predicted score is Independência 0–1 Nacional AM, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Independência vs Nacional AM?
Independência vs Nacional AM () kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Remo1
Monte Roraima1