Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.35 – our chance 52% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPaysandu to win ✓62% · @1.18
Double chancePaysandu or draw ✓84% · fair 1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.35
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.20
Paysandu vs Independência: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independência travel to face Paysandu on Wednesday 15 April in the , with Leonidas Sodre de Castro the venue – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT.
Current form
Paysandu, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–7 defeat to Nacional AM, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Independência, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Trem, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Paysandu, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Independência.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Paysandu 1.8 xG, Independência 1.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Paysandu 62%, draw 22%, Independência 16%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.35.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.35 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paysandu 1–1 Independência. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Paysandu62%fair 1.60 · @1.18
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @5.50
Independência16%fair 6.29 · @15.00
2.82Expected goals
1.77Paysandu xG
1.05Independência xG
52%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–09%
0–16%
0–06%
From our goals model: Paysandu 1.8 – 1.0 Independência expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paysandu to win✓
62%
1.60
1.18
Double chance
Paysandu or draw✓
84%
1.19
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.35 ▲
Draw no bet
Paysandu (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Independência +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Paysandu to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paysandu / FT Paysandu✗
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.20
–
Recent results
Paysandu – last 6
LWLWWW
10 Apr
@ Nacional AM
0–7
L
5 Apr
@ Volta Redonda
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Guaporé
0–1
L
18 Mar
@ Portuguesa
3–2
W
12 Mar
vs Portuguesa RJ
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs Castanhal
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independência – last 5
LDLWL
8 Apr
@ Trem
0–4
L
26 Mar
vs Guaporé
0–0
D
6 Mar
vs Galvez
1–2
L
3 Mar
@ ADESG
2–0
W
26 Feb
@ Águia de Marabá
0–2
L
0.6Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paysandu and Independência.
What is the prediction for Paysandu vs Independência?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Paysandu vs Independência?
On our numbers Paysandu have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Independência 16%.
How many goals will there be in Paysandu vs Independência?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paysandu vs Independência?
Our predicted score is Paysandu 1–1 Independência, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Paysandu vs Independência?
Paysandu vs Independência () kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Leonidas Sodre de Castro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
