Value bet: Apoel Nicosia to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultPafos to win40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.28
Apoel Nicosia vs Pafos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Sunday 26 April: Apoel Nicosia v Pafos in the 1. Division, played at GSP Stadium. In the table, Apoel Nicosia are 4th, among the top four, on 17 points after 9 matches; Pafos are 6th (upper half) with 16. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Apoel Nicosia, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Apollon Limassol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Pafos, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over AEL, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Apoel Nicosia 1.4 xG, Pafos 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Apoel Nicosia 35%, draw 25%, Pafos 40%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Apoel Nicosia to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Pafos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Apoel Nicosia35%fair 2.84 · @3.10
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.35
Pafos40%fair 2.49 · @2.05
2.78Expected goals
1.42Apoel Nicosia xG
1.36Pafos xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Apoel Nicosia 1.4 – 1.4 Pafos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pafos to win
40%
2.49
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.71
1.70
Draw no bet
Pafos (draw no bet)
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Pafos +0.5 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.42
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Apoel Nicosia to score first
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Apoel Nicosia / FT Apoel Nicosia
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.28
–
Recent results
Apoel Nicosia – last 6
LLWWLW
22 Apr
@ Apollon Limassol
2–4
L
14 Apr
vs Apollon Limassol
2–3
L
5 Apr
vs Aris
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Aris
2–1
W
8 Mar
vs Anorthosis
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Omonia Nicosia
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Pafos – last 6
WDWDDD
22 Apr
vs AEL
3–1
W
14 Apr
@ Aris
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ AEL
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Apollon Limassol
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Aris
2–2
D
21 Feb
vs Anorthosis
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Apoel Nicosia and Pafos.
What is the prediction for Apoel Nicosia vs Pafos?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Apoel Nicosia vs Pafos?
On our numbers Apoel Nicosia have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Pafos 40%.
How many goals will there be in Apoel Nicosia vs Pafos?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Apoel Nicosia vs Pafos?
Our predicted score is Apoel Nicosia 1–1 Pafos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Apoel Nicosia vs Pafos?
Apoel Nicosia vs Pafos (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at GSP Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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