Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: FC Lugano to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFC Lugano to win ✓64% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.42
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:30 WAT, Sunday 17 May: FC Lugano v FC Basel 1893 in the Super League, played at Stadio di Cornaredo. In the table, FC Lugano are 1st, leading the league, on 34 points after 13 matches; FC Basel 1893 are 7th (lower half) with 15. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
FC Lugano, last 5: DLDDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with FC Sion, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
FC Basel 1893, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to FC ST. Gallen, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours FC Basel 1893, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for FC Lugano.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Feb 2026) it ended FC Basel 1893 1–1 FC Lugano.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Lugano 2.4 xG, FC Basel 1893 1.1 xG – a total near 3.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 67% and GG at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Lugano 64%, draw 17%, FC Basel 1893 20%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.42.
Price worth noting: FC Lugano to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Lugano 2–1 FC Basel 1893. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Lugano64%fair 1.57 · @1.80
Draw17%fair 6.03 · @4.10
FC Basel 189320%fair 5.11 · @3.70
3.50Expected goals
2.40FC Lugano xG
1.09FC Basel 1893 xG
65%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: FC Lugano 2.4 – 1.1 FC Basel 1893 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893?
On our numbers FC Lugano have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 17% and FC Basel 1893 20%.
How many goals will there be in FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893?
Our predicted score is FC Lugano 2–1 FC Basel 1893, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio di Cornaredo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
