Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✗65% · @1.34
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓89% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.26
Penarol vs Juventud: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Juventud travel to face Penarol on Tuesday 21 April in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Campeón del Siglo the venue – the ball rolls at 00:30 WAT. In the table, Penarol are 5th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Juventud are 8th (upper half) with 18.
Current form
Penarol, last 5: LLDLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Platense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Juventud, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atletico-MG, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.2 for Juventud.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.7 xG, Juventud 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 65%, draw 24%, Juventud 11%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Juventud. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol65%fair 1.54 · @1.34
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @4.20
Juventud11%fair 9.26 · @9.50
2.35Expected goals
1.72Penarol xG
0.63Juventud xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.7 – 0.6 Juventud expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penarol
Juventud
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+24%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.46
0.62
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
65%
1.54
1.34
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)
86%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Penarol -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first✗
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.26
–
Recent results
Penarol – last 6
LLDLWW
17 Apr
vs Platense
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
21 Mar
vs Cerro
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Juventud – last 6
LDLLLL
16 Apr
@ Atletico-MG
1–2
L
9 Apr
vs Cienciano
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Boston River
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Cerro
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Albion FC
0–1
L
16 Mar
@ Danubio
1–4
L
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Juventud.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Penarol vs Juventud?
On our numbers Penarol have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Juventud 11%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Juventud?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Juventud?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Juventud, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Juventud?
Penarol vs Juventud (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
