Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultUnion Santa Fe to win ✗38% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.18
Union Santa Fe vs Independiente: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Union Santa Fe welcome Independiente to Estadio Marcelo Bielsa for a Copa Argentina fixture on Saturday 23 May (00:00 WAT).
Current form
Union Santa Fe, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Belgrano Cordoba, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Independiente, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Defensa Y Justicia, at home. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Head to head
When they last met (10 Mar 2026) it ended Independiente 4–4 Union Santa Fe.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Union Santa Fe 1.6 xG, Independiente 1.4 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 49% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Union Santa Fe 38%, draw 27%, Independiente 35%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.45 – longer than our fair 1.38, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Union Santa Fe 1–1 Independiente. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Union Santa Fe38%fair 2.62 · @2.75
Draw27%fair 3.66 · @2.92
Independiente35%fair 2.89 · @2.75
3.02Expected goals
1.62Union Santa Fe xG
1.40Independiente xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–06%
From our goals model: Union Santa Fe 1.6 – 1.4 Independiente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
Attack vs Copa Argentina average
-9%
+6%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+14%
Our expected goals here
1.61
1.23
Our own ratings from every Copa Argentina result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
On our numbers Union Santa Fe have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Independiente 35%.
How many goals will there be in Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
Our predicted score is Union Santa Fe 1–1 Independiente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
Union Santa Fe vs Independiente (Copa Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
