Celaya vs Leones Negros: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Celaya welcome Leones Negros for a Liga Premier Serie A fixture on Saturday 18 April (18:00 WAT).
Current form
Celaya, last 5: DLDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Jaguares de Chiapas, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Celaya 1.6 xG, Leones Negros 1.3 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Celaya 45%, draw 21%, Leones Negros 34%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Celaya 1–1 Leones Negros. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Celaya45%fair 2.23 · @2.15
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.50
Leones Negros34%fair 2.94 · @2.88
2.87Expected goals
1.55Celaya xG
1.31Leones Negros xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Celaya 1.6 – 1.3 Leones Negros expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celaya to win
45%
2.23
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.68
1.65
Draw no bet
Celaya (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Leones Negros +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
54%
1.87
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Celaya to score first
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celaya / FT Celaya
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.09
–
Recent results
Celaya – last 5
DLDWL
12 Apr
vs Jaguares de Chiapas
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Montañeses
1–5
L
22 Mar
vs Inter Playa del Carmen
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Chapulineros
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Racing de Veracruz
0–4
L
0.6Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Leones Negros – last 2
WL
27 Mar
@ Tecos
2–0
W
17 Feb
@ Durango
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celaya and Leones Negros.
What is the prediction for Celaya vs Leones Negros?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Celaya vs Leones Negros?
On our numbers Celaya have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leones Negros 34%.
How many goals will there be in Celaya vs Leones Negros?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celaya vs Leones Negros?
Our predicted score is Celaya 1–1 Leones Negros, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Celaya vs Leones Negros?
Celaya vs Leones Negros (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Deportiva Venados
Calor de San Pedro
Tecos0
Inter Playa del Carmen0