Value bet: Erbil to win @ 3.60 – our chance 33% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAl Quwa Al Jawiya to win ✗41% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.30
Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Al Quwa Al Jawiya welcome Erbil for a Iraqi League fixture on Thursday 23 April (17:30 WAT). In the table, Al Quwa Al Jawiya are 14th, lower half, on 13 points after 13 matches; Erbil are 7th (upper half) with 20.
Current form
Al Quwa Al Jawiya, last 5: WDDWW Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Al-Qasim, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Erbil, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Naft, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Al Quwa Al Jawiya, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for Erbil.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.2 xG, Erbil 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 46%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Al Quwa Al Jawiya 41%, draw 27%, Erbil 33%.
Price worth noting: Erbil to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (57%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–1 Erbil. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Al Quwa Al Jawiya41%fair 2.45 · @2.00
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.00
Erbil33%fair 3.07 · @3.60
2.44Expected goals
1.23Al Quwa Al Jawiya xG
1.21Erbil xG
46%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.2 – 1.2 Erbil expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win✗
41%
2.45
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
–
Draw no bet
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw no bet)
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Erbil +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Al Quwa Al Jawiya to score first✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Quwa Al Jawiya / FT Al Quwa Al Jawiya✗
21%
4.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.30
–
Recent results
Al Quwa Al Jawiya – last 6
WDDWWW
9 Apr
vs Al-Qasim
5–0
W
5 Apr
vs Naft
0–0
D
31 Mar
@ Al Shorta
3–3
D
26 Mar
vs Al Karkh
1–0
W
17 Mar
vs Baghdad
3–1
W
13 Mar
@ Diyala
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Erbil – last 6
WDDDDW
14 Apr
@ Naft
2–0
W
9 Apr
vs Mosul
2–2
D
5 Apr
@ Gharraf
0–0
D
31 Mar
vs Al Zawra'a
1–1
D
27 Mar
@ Naft Maysan
0–0
D
23 Mar
vs Diyala
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Quwa Al Jawiya and Erbil.
What is the prediction for Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil?
On our numbers Al Quwa Al Jawiya have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Erbil 33%.
How many goals will there be in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil?
Our predicted score is Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–1 Erbil, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil?
Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Erbil (Iraqi League) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
