Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 – our chance 54% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlianza Universidad to win ✗57% · @1.33
Double chanceAlianza Universidad or draw ✗80% · @1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.20
Alianza Universidad vs Santos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alianza Universidad welcome Santos for a Segunda División fixture on Monday 4 May (19:00 WAT). In the table, Alianza Universidad are 5th, upper half, on 21 points after 16 matches; Santos are 6th (lower half) with 21. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Universidad 1.4 xG, Santos 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 45%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Universidad 57%, draw 23%, Santos 20%.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alianza Universidad to win (57%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Universidad 1–0 Santos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Universidad57%fair 1.76 · @1.33
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @4.50
Santos20%fair 4.97 · @7.00
2.28Expected goals
1.35Alianza Universidad xG
0.92Santos xG
45%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
0–19%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Alianza Universidad 1.4 – 0.9 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alianza Universidad to win✗
57%
1.76
1.33
Double chance
Alianza Universidad or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.06
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
–
Draw no bet
Alianza Universidad (draw no bet)✗
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Santos +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Alianza Universidad to score first
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alianza Universidad / FT Alianza Universidad✗
27%
3.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.20
–
Recent results
Alianza Universidad
No recent results on record.
Santos – last 1
D
29 Mar
@ Deportivo Binacional
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Universidad and Santos.
What is the prediction for Alianza Universidad vs Santos?
Our pick is Alianza Universidad to win with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Alianza Universidad vs Santos?
On our numbers Alianza Universidad have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Santos 20%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Universidad vs Santos?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Universidad vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Alianza Universidad 1–0 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Alianza Universidad vs Santos?
Alianza Universidad vs Santos (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
