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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest: numbers & prediction

UEFA Europa League · Europe · Villa Park

Aston Villa

LWWWW
4–0
FT

Nottingham Forest

WWWWD
Aston Villa 59%Draw 23%Nottingham Forest 19% Expected goals 1.74 – 0.93
74%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.28Odds

Picks by market

ResultAston Villa to win ✓59% · @1.68
Double chanceAston Villa or draw ✓81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:00 WAT, Thursday 7 May: Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest in the UEFA Europa League, played at Villa Park.

Current form

Aston Villa, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Nottingham Forest, away. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Nottingham Forest, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Chelsea, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (30 Apr 2026) it ended Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston Villa.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Aston Villa 1.7 xG, Nottingham Forest 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Aston Villa 59%, draw 23%, Nottingham Forest 19%.
  • Lower-risk option: Aston Villa or draw (81%) at 1.18.
  • GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.77.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aston Villa 1–1 Nottingham Forest. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Aston Villa59%fair 1.71 · @1.68
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @4.00
Nottingham Forest19%fair 5.31 · @4.45
2.66Expected goals
1.74Aston Villa xG
0.93Nottingham Forest xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

From our goals model: Aston Villa 1.7 – 0.9 Nottingham Forest expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAston Villa to win ✓59%1.711.68
Double chanceAston Villa or draw ✓81%1.231.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗56%1.791.77
Draw no betAston Villa (draw no bet) ✓76%1.32–
Asian handicapNottingham Forest +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✗68%1.46–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74%1.351.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓50%1.981.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗71%1.411.35
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓85%1.171.12
First team to scoreAston Villa to score first ✓61%1.65–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗41%2.42–
Half-time / full-timeHT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa ✓35%2.86–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.26–

Recent results

Aston Villa – last 6

LWWWWW
30 Apr@ Nottingham Forest0–1L
19 Aprvs Sunderland4–3W
16 Aprvs Bologna4–0W
9 Apr@ Bologna3–1W
22 Marvs West Ham2–0W
19 Marvs Lille2–0W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Nottingham Forest – last 6

WWWWDW
4 May@ Chelsea3–1W
30 Aprvs Aston Villa1–0W
19 Aprvs Burnley4–1W
16 Aprvs FC Porto1–0W
9 Apr@ FC Porto1–1D
22 Mar@ Tottenham3–0W
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

30 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa1–0
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head page →

More UEFA Europa League predictions

League hub
FT SC Freiburg3 SC Braga1 156%1.73X24%3.60219%4.70 1.7–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.30 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

On our numbers Aston Villa have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Nottingham Forest 19%.

How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

Our predicted score is Aston Villa 1–1 Nottingham Forest, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Villa Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.