Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultDefensor Sporting to win ✓49% · @1.88
Double chanceDefensor Sporting or draw ✓77% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.70
Defensor Sporting vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Monday 27 April: Defensor Sporting v Progreso in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Luis Franzini. In the table, Defensor Sporting are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19.
Current form
Defensor Sporting, last 5: LDDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cerro, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Progreso, last 3: DDL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Liverpool Montevideo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Defensor Sporting 1.3 xG, Progreso 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Defensor Sporting 49%, draw 28%, Progreso 23%.
Lower-risk option: Defensor Sporting or draw (77%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.05.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensor Sporting 1–1 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Defensor Sporting49%fair 2.04 · @1.88
Draw28%fair 3.63 · @3.20
Progreso23%fair 4.27 · @4.10
2.28Expected goals
1.32Defensor Sporting xG
0.97Progreso xG
50%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.3 – 1.0 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Defensor Sporting
Progreso
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-0%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
+25%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.30
1.20
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensor Sporting to win✓
49%
2.04
1.88
Double chance
Defensor Sporting or draw✓
77%
1.31
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
2.05
Draw no bet
Defensor Sporting (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
Progreso +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Defensor Sporting to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Defensor Sporting / FT Defensor Sporting✗
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.70
–
Recent results
Defensor Sporting – last 6
LDDWDL
5 Apr
@ Cerro
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Albion FC
1–1
D
26 Mar
@ Danubio
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Club Nacional
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 3
DDL
31 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
3–3
D
26 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensor Sporting and Progreso.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Progreso 23%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 1–1 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Progreso?
Defensor Sporting vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
