Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✗61% · @1.71
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓85% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.94
Penarol vs Defensor Sporting: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penarol welcome Defensor Sporting to Estadio Campeón del Siglo for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Monday 4 May (23:30 WAT). In the table, Penarol are 5th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Defensor Sporting are 13th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Penarol, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Corinthians, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Defensor Sporting, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Progreso, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Defensor Sporting, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.3 for Penarol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.7 xG, Defensor Sporting 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 61%, draw 25%, Defensor Sporting 15%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Defensor Sporting. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol61%fair 1.65 · @1.71
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.35
Defensor Sporting15%fair 6.69 · @4.85
2.39Expected goals
1.71Penarol xG
0.69Defensor Sporting xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.7 – 0.7 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+24%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
+25%
Our expected goals here
1.98
0.75
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
61%
1.65
1.71
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Penarol -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.94
–
Recent results
Penarol – last 6
LDLLDL
1 May
@ Corinthians
0–2
L
21 Apr
vs Juventud
2–2
D
17 Apr
vs Platense
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 6
WLDDWD
27 Apr
vs Progreso
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Cerro
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Albion FC
1–1
D
26 Mar
@ Danubio
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Club Nacional
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Penarol have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Defensor Sporting 15%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Defensor Sporting?
Penarol vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
