Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Hercílio Luz to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultHercílio Luz to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceHercílio Luz or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.78
Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Hercílio Luz welcome Tubarao for a Catarinense 2 fixture on Wednesday 27 May (23:30 WAT).
Current form
Hercílio Luz, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Juventus SC, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Tubarao, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Caravaggio, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Hercílio Luz 1.6 xG, Tubarao 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 44%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Hercílio Luz 56%, draw 25%, Tubarao 19%.
Lower-risk option: Hercílio Luz or draw (81%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Hercílio Luz to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Hercílio Luz or draw (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hercílio Luz 1–0 Tubarao. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Hercílio Luz56%fair 1.79 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.20
Tubarao19%fair 5.32 · @3.50
2.38Expected goals
1.60Hercílio Luz xG
0.78Tubarao xG
44%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Hercílio Luz 1.6 – 0.8 Tubarao expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hercílio Luz to win✓
56%
1.79
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Hercílio Luz or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
–
Draw no bet
Hercílio Luz (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Tubarao +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Hercílio Luz to score first✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hercílio Luz / FT Hercílio Luz✓
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.78
–
Recent results
Hercílio Luz – last 3
WLW
24 May
@ Juventus SC
1–0
W
13 May
vs Blumenau
0–1
L
28 Apr
vs Jaraguá
4–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Tubarao – last 6
DWDDWD
24 May
vs Caravaggio
2–2
D
17 May
@ Metropolitano
1–0
W
12 May
@ Nação
0–0
D
6 May
vs Jaraguá
1–1
D
1 May
vs Juventus SC
4–0
W
21 Apr
@ Blumenau
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hercílio Luz and Tubarao.
What is the prediction for Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao?
Our pick is Hercílio Luz or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao?
On our numbers Hercílio Luz have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tubarao 19%.
How many goals will there be in Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao?
Our predicted score is Hercílio Luz 1–0 Tubarao, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao?
Hercílio Luz vs Tubarao (Catarinense 2) kicks off on Wednesday 27 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Catarinense 2 · Brazil
Blumenau2
Guarani de Palhoça0