Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗53% · @1.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Toluca vs CF Pachuca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
CF Pachuca travel to face Toluca on Monday 4 May in the Liga MX, with Estadio Nemesio Diez the venue – the ball rolls at 02:15 WAT. In the table, Toluca are 4th, among the top four, on 27 points after 16 matches; CF Pachuca are 8th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
Toluca, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Los Angeles FC, away. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
CF Pachuca, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to U.N.A.M. - Pumas, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours CF Pachuca, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Toluca.
Head to head
When they last met (23 Mar 2026) it ended Pachuca 1–1 Toluca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 1.7 xG, CF Pachuca 1.3 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 53%, draw 23%, CF Pachuca 24%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 1–1 CF Pachuca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca53%fair 1.90 · @1.78
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.70
CF Pachuca24%fair 4.14 · @4.20
3.00Expected goals
1.74Toluca xG
1.26CF Pachuca xG
60%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Toluca 1.7 – 1.3 CF Pachuca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Toluca
CF Pachuca
Attack vs Liga MX average
+30%
+17%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-17%
Our expected goals here
1.74
1.51
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
On our numbers Toluca have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 23% and CF Pachuca 24%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
Our predicted score is Toluca 1–1 CF Pachuca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
Toluca vs CF Pachuca (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 02:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
