Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: CF Pachuca to win @ 3.15 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.98
CF Pachuca vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 11 May the Liga MX brings CF Pachuca against Toluca at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, CF Pachuca are 8th, upper half, on 22 points after 16 matches; Toluca are 4th (among the top four) with 27.
Current form
CF Pachuca, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Toluca, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Toluca, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Los Angeles FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Momentum favours CF Pachuca, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Toluca.
Head to head
When they last met (4 May 2026) it ended Toluca 0–1 CF Pachuca. The last 2 head-to-heads: CF Pachuca 1 win, Toluca 0, draws 1. Those games averaged 1.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give CF Pachuca 1.5 xG, Toluca 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – CF Pachuca 36%, draw 24%, Toluca 40%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: CF Pachuca to win @3.15 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: CF Pachuca 1–1 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
CF Pachuca36%fair 2.77 · @3.15
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.60
Toluca40%fair 2.48 · @2.10
3.01Expected goals
1.52CF Pachuca xG
1.50Toluca xG
65%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–07%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: CF Pachuca 1.5 – 1.5 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
CF Pachuca
Toluca
Attack vs Liga MX average
+17%
+30%
Goals conceded vs average
-17%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.73
1.52
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
On our numbers CF Pachuca have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Toluca 40%.
How many goals will there be in CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is CF Pachuca 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
CF Pachuca vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
