Value bet: Mineros de Zacatecas to win @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMineros de Zacatecas to win ✗55% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tepatitlán travel to face Mineros de Zacatecas on Friday 1 May in the Liga De Expansión MX, with Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba the venue – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT. In the table, Mineros de Zacatecas are 10th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Tepatitlán are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7.
Current form
Mineros de Zacatecas, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Monarcas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Tepatitlán, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Atlante FC, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (9 Mar 2026) it ended Tepatitlán 4–0 Mineros de Zacatecas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mineros de Zacatecas 2.1 xG, Tepatitlán 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mineros de Zacatecas 55%, draw 21%, Tepatitlán 23%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Mineros de Zacatecas to win @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mineros de Zacatecas 2–1 Tepatitlán. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mineros de Zacatecas55%fair 1.80 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.45
Tepatitlán23%fair 4.26 · @3.55
3.07Expected goals
2.06Mineros de Zacatecas xG
1.01Tepatitlán xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–010%
1–110%
1–010%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Mineros de Zacatecas 2.1 – 1.0 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mineros de Zacatecas
Tepatitlán
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-2%
-30%
Goals conceded vs average
+9%
+47%
Our expected goals here
2.68
0.93
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mineros de Zacatecas to win✗
55%
1.80
2.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.65
Draw no bet
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw no bet)
70%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Mineros de Zacatecas -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.12
First team to score
Mineros de Zacatecas to score first✓
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Mineros de Zacatecas ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mineros de Zacatecas / FT Mineros de Zacatecas✗
What is the prediction for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Mineros de Zacatecas have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tepatitlán 23%.
How many goals will there be in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Mineros de Zacatecas 2–1 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán?
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
