Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.83 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMuharraq to win ✓62% · @1.50
Double chanceMuharraq or draw ✓82% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Al Najma vs Muharraq: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Al Najma welcome Muharraq for a Premier League fixture on Monday 4 May (17:00 WAT). In the table, Al Najma are 8th, lower half, on 8 points after 7 matches; Muharraq are 4th (among the top four) with 11. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Al Najma, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Malkiya, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.
Muharraq, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Budaiya, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Muharraq, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Al Najma.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Al Najma 1.1 xG, Muharraq 2.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Al Najma 18%, draw 21%, Muharraq 62%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Al Najma 1–1 Muharraq. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Al Najma18%fair 5.69 · @5.50
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @4.00
Muharraq62%fair 1.62 · @1.50
3.01Expected goals
1.06Al Najma xG
1.96Muharraq xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–110%
0–29%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Al Najma 1.1 – 2.0 Muharraq expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Muharraq to win✓
62%
1.62
1.50
Double chance
Muharraq or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.83 ▲
Draw no bet
Muharraq (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Al Najma +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
First team to score
Muharraq to score first
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Muharraq ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Muharraq / FT Muharraq✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.06
–
Recent results
Al Najma – last 5
LLDWL
28 Apr
@ Malkiya
0–3
L
16 Apr
vs Budaiya
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Al Shabab
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Al-Hidd
1–0
W
20 Feb
@ Al Ahli
0–1
L
0.6Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Muharraq – last 6
WWWWLL
29 Apr
vs Budaiya
1–0
W
24 Apr
vs Al Riffa
2–1
W
16 Apr
@ Al-Hidd
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Sitra
3–0
W
18 Mar
vs Khalidiya
0–3
L
12 Mar
@ Al Riffa
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Najma and Muharraq.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Al Najma vs Muharraq?
On our numbers Al Najma have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Muharraq 62%.
How many goals will there be in Al Najma vs Muharraq?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Najma vs Muharraq?
Our predicted score is Al Najma 1–1 Muharraq, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Al Najma vs Muharraq?
Al Najma vs Muharraq (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
