Value bet: Dunfermline to win @ 3.10 – our chance 40% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDunfermline to win ✗40% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.63
Arbroath vs Dunfermline: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arbroath welcome Dunfermline to Gayfield Park for a Premiership fixture on Friday 8 May (19:30 WAT).
Current form
Arbroath, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Dunfermline, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Dunfermline, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Arbroath, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Dunfermline, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Arbroath.
Head to head
When they last met (5 May 2026) it ended Dunfermline 1–0 Arbroath. The last 3 head-to-heads: Arbroath 1 win, Dunfermline 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 2.3 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arbroath 0.9 xG, Dunfermline 1.2 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arbroath 35%, draw 25%, Dunfermline 40%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Dunfermline to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.42 – longer than our fair 1.33, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arbroath 0–1 Dunfermline. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arbroath35%fair 2.84 · @2.08
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.50
Dunfermline40%fair 2.52 · @3.10
2.10Expected goals
0.90Arbroath xG
1.20Dunfermline xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Arbroath 0.9 – 1.2 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Arbroath have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Dunfermline 40%.
How many goals will there be in Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
Our predicted score is Arbroath 0–1 Dunfermline, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Arbroath vs Dunfermline?
Arbroath vs Dunfermline (Premiership) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Gayfield Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
