Chesterfield 43%Draw 25%Notts County 32%Expected goals 1.51 – 1.38
75%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.30
8/10Rating
1.30Odds
2
Value bet: Notts County to win @ 3.30 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultChesterfield to win43% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.41
Chesterfield vs Notts County: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 10 May the League Two brings Chesterfield against Notts County at SMH Group Stadium. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT.
Current form
Chesterfield, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Grimsby, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Notts County, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Newport County, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chesterfield 1.5 xG, Notts County 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chesterfield 43%, draw 25%, Notts County 32%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Notts County to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chesterfield 1–1 Notts County. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chesterfield43%fair 2.32 · @2.12
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.35
Notts County32%fair 3.11 · @3.30
2.89Expected goals
1.51Chesterfield xG
1.38Notts County xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–18%
2–06%
From our goals model: Chesterfield 1.5 – 1.4 Notts County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Chesterfield
Notts County
Attack vs League Two average
+18%
+28%
Goals conceded vs average
+9%
-14%
Our expected goals here
1.58
1.60
Our own ratings from every League Two result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chesterfield to win
43%
2.32
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.72
1.67
Draw no bet
Chesterfield (draw no bet)
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Notts County +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
84%
1.19
1.11
First team to score
Chesterfield to score first
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chesterfield / FT Chesterfield
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.41
–
Recent results
Chesterfield – last 6
WWWLWD
14 Apr
vs Grimsby
2–1
W
6 Apr
@ Barrow
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Cheltenham
1–0
W
17 Mar
vs Oldham
0–3
L
3 Mar
vs Colchester
3–0
W
21 Feb
@ Crawley Town
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Notts County – last 6
WLWLWW
6 Apr
vs Newport County
3–1
W
3 Apr
@ Salford City
1–2
L
28 Mar
@ Harrogate Town
2–0
W
24 Mar
@ Oldham
0–3
L
17 Mar
@ Accrington ST
4–0
W
21 Feb
vs Tranmere
5–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chesterfield and Notts County.
What is the prediction for Chesterfield vs Notts County?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Notts County?
On our numbers Chesterfield have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Notts County 32%.
How many goals will there be in Chesterfield vs Notts County?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chesterfield vs Notts County?
Our predicted score is Chesterfield 1–1 Notts County, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Chesterfield vs Notts County?
Chesterfield vs Notts County (League Two) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at SMH Group Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
