Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTepatitlán to win ✓47% · @1.92
Double chanceTepatitlán or draw ✓74% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.70
Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Sunday 17 May: Tepatitlán v CDS Tampico Madero in the Liga De Expansión MX. In the table, Tepatitlán are 16th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 15 matches; CDS Tampico Madero are 14th (in the drop zone) with 15.
Current form
Tepatitlán, last 5: DDLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mineros de Zacatecas, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
CDS Tampico Madero, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cancún, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours CDS Tampico Madero, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for Tepatitlán.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tepatitlán 1.3 xG, CDS Tampico Madero 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tepatitlán 47%, draw 27%, CDS Tampico Madero 26%.
Lower-risk option: Tepatitlán or draw (74%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tepatitlán 1–1 CDS Tampico Madero. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tepatitlán47%fair 2.13 · @1.92
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @3.30
CDS Tampico Madero26%fair 3.88 · @4.10
2.43Expected goals
1.33Tepatitlán xG
1.11CDS Tampico Madero xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Tepatitlán 1.3 – 1.1 CDS Tampico Madero expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tepatitlán
CDS Tampico Madero
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-30%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
+47%
-3%
Our expected goals here
1.25
1.38
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tepatitlán to win✓
47%
2.13
1.92
Double chance
Tepatitlán or draw✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Tepatitlán (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.55
–
Asian handicap
CDS Tampico Madero +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Tepatitlán to score first✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tepatitlán / FT Tepatitlán✓
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.70
–
Recent results
Tepatitlán – last 6
DDLDWD
4 May
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
1–1
D
1 May
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
1–1
D
24 Apr
@ Atlante FC
0–2
L
11 Apr
@ CA La Paz
1–1
D
4 Apr
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2–0
W
29 Mar
@ Cancún
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
CDS Tampico Madero – last 6
DWWWWW
4 May
@ Cancún
1–1
D
1 May
vs Cancún
2–1
W
26 Apr
@ CA La Paz
2–1
W
23 Apr
vs CA La Paz
2–0
W
20 Apr
vs Monarcas
1–0
W
11 Apr
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tepatitlán and CDS Tampico Madero.
What is the prediction for Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero?
On our numbers Tepatitlán have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 27% and CDS Tampico Madero 26%.
How many goals will there be in Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero?
Our predicted score is Tepatitlán 1–1 CDS Tampico Madero, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero?
Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
