Cerro Largo vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penarol travel to face Cerro Largo on Tuesday 12 May in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla the venue – the ball rolls at 00:30 WAT. In the table, Cerro Largo are 15th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Cerro Largo, last 5: WLDDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Progreso, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Penarol, last 5: DDLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Platense, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Cerro Largo, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for Penarol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro Largo 0.7 xG, Penarol 1.5 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro Largo 17%, draw 26%, Penarol 57%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro Largo 0–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro Largo17%fair 5.95 · @5.10
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.50
Penarol57%fair 1.74 · @1.65
2.26Expected goals
0.73Cerro Largo xG
1.53Penarol xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–212%
1–112%
0–010%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 0.7 – 1.5 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cerro Largo
Penarol
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-22%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.70
1.39
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✓
57%
1.74
1.65
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.95
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Cerro Largo +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first✗
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.20
–
Recent results
Cerro Largo – last 6
WLDDLW
3 May
@ Progreso
1–0
W
20 Apr
@ Boston River
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Cerro
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Albion FC
2–2
D
25 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–3
L
20 Mar
vs Deportivo Maldonado
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Penarol – last 6
DDLDLL
7 May
@ Platense
1–1
D
4 May
vs Defensor Sporting
1–1
D
1 May
@ Corinthians
0–2
L
21 Apr
vs Juventud
2–2
D
17 Apr
vs Platense
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro Largo and Penarol.
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Penarol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Penarol?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Penarol 57%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Largo vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Cerro Largo 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Cerro Largo vs Penarol?
Cerro Largo vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
