Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Pasto travel to face Deportes Tolima on Sunday 10 May in the Primera A, with Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro the venue – the ball rolls at 00:10 WAT. In the table, Deportes Tolima are 9th, upper half, on 26 points after 18 matches; Deportivo Pasto are 18th (in the drop zone) with 15.
Current form
Deportes Tolima, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Club Nacional, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Deportivo Pasto, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Junior, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (11 Apr 2026) it ended Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Deportes Tolima.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportes Tolima 1.7 xG, Deportivo Pasto 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportes Tolima 52%, draw 25%, Deportivo Pasto 23%.
Lower-risk option: Deportes Tolima or draw (77%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Deportes Tolima or draw (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportes Tolima52%fair 1.92 · @1.97
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.25
Deportivo Pasto23%fair 4.35 · @3.90
2.50Expected goals
1.65Deportes Tolima xG
0.84Deportivo Pasto xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–111%
2–011%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.7 – 0.8 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
Attack vs Primera A average
+1%
-29%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
+22%
Our expected goals here
1.81
0.70
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Deportes Tolima or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Deportivo Pasto 23%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 00:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
