Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw ✓80% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.85
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.85
Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:00 WAT, Monday 11 May: Independiente Medellin v Fortaleza FC in the Copa Colombia, played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. In the table, Independiente Medellin are 1st on 8 points after 4 matches; Fortaleza FC are 2nd with 5. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Independiente Medellin, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cusco, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Fortaleza FC, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Leones FC, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Apr 2026) it ended Independiente Medellin 1–0 Fortaleza FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 2.4 xG, Fortaleza FC 1.6 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 57%, draw 23%, Fortaleza FC 20%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.85 – longer than our fair 1.76, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 2–1 Fortaleza FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente Medellin57%fair 1.76 · @1.53
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.50
Fortaleza FC20%fair 5.00 · @6.00
3.99Expected goals
2.38Independiente Medellin xG
1.61Fortaleza FC xG
57%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
1–17%
2–27%
3–17%
1–26%
3–25%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 2.4 – 1.6 Fortaleza FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Independiente Medellin
Fortaleza FC
Attack vs Copa Colombia average
+25%
+3%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
-5%
Our expected goals here
1.79
1.44
Our own ratings from every Copa Colombia result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
57%
1.76
1.53
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Fortaleza FC +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first✓
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Independiente Medellin ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✓
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fortaleza FC 20%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 2–1 Fortaleza FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC?
Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC (Copa Colombia) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
